The time has come for me to reveal my final Oscar predictions for the 2017 ceremony. Because there are 24 categories to go through, I am breaking this up into below the line categories, a.k.a. the technical crafts and shorts, and the “major” categories, the feature film prizes, acting, directing and writing. Today I’ll be revealing my winner predictions in the 13 below the line categories, with rankings for how I see each race.
Read my thoughts on the below the line categories and let me know your thoughts!
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Blade Runner 2049 – Roger Deakins
2. The Shape of Water – Dan Laustsen
3. Dunkirk – Hoyte van Hoytema
4. Mudbound – Rachel Morrison
5. Darkest Hour – Bruno Delbonnel
It’s finally Deakins’ year! This is a man who has been nominated 13 times and lost 13 times, despite producing some of the most meticulous, elegant shots in modern film history, and this extends to his work in Blade Runner 2049. He has won the trifecta of Critics’ Choice, BAFTA and the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), so it feels like this is his. However, the last time a cinematographer won all three of those precursors and still lose the Oscar was in 2006, with Children of Men‘s Emmanuel Lubezki. And what film did he lose to? A Guillermo del Toro film, Pan’s Labyrinth. So Deakins should watch out for The Shape of Water, which is the more beloved movie within the Academy. I’m also excited to see the first female cinematographer nominated here, Rachel Morrison, and while she won’t win this year, based on her work in Mudbound and Black Panther she’ll get hers very soon.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Phantom Thread – Mark Bridges
2. The Shape of Water – Luis Sequeira
3. Beauty and the Beast – Jacqueline Durran
4. Darkest Hour – Jacqueline Durran
5. Victoria & Abdul – Consolata Boyle
Typically with Best Costume Design you go with the film with big fancy dresses, and Phantom Thread literally centers on a fashion designer who makes dresses. It is also a Best Picture nominee, so the Academy does like it more than some were predicting. Mark Bridges has won at Critics’ Choice and BAFTA, but the only snag is the Costume Designers Guild (CDG), which rewarded The Shape of Water instead. I’m not sure if Academy voters will consider the Amphibian Man suit as part of the costume design, but if so it could certainly upset here.
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Dunkirk – Lee Smith
2. Baby Driver – Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss
3. I, Tonya – Tatiana S. Riegel
4. The Shape of Water – Sidney Wolinsky
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Jon Gregory
Film Editing is tough this year because Baby Driver has been the overwhelming consensus winner among critics, and now Critics’ Choice and BAFTA, but it is notoriously hard for non-Best Picture nominees to win here. If we go by the unofficial rule that voters are often looking for the “most” of a given craft, Baby Driver certainly fits the bill. But Dunkirk is far more respected within the Academy and features showy editing itself, cutting between three different storylines that take place over varying lengths of time and making them all converge at the end. Dunkirk did win at the ACE Eddie Awards, so I will hesitantly pick it here, but don’t be surprised if Baby Driver wins.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Darkest Hour – Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick
2. Wonder – Arjen Tuiten
3. Victoria & Abdul – Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
It is my honest opinion that Gary Oldman would not be receiving half as much acclaim for his performance as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour without the transformative makeup work. The film has already won at Critics’ Choice, BAFTA and the Make-up and Hair Stylists Guild Awards (MUAHS), so there’s no reason to believe Wonder or Victoria & Abdul would upset, especially with Darkest Hour also getting a Best Picture nomination. P.S.: Why this category still only has three nominees will never cease to baffle me.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. The Shape of Water – Alexandre Desplat
2. Phantom Thread – Jonny Greenwood
3. Dunkirk – Hans Zimmer
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Carter Burwell
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi – John Williams
Phantom Thread‘s score by Jonny Greenwood is pure opulence, a work that stands on its own even outside the context of the movie. But Alexandre Desplat’s score for The Shape of Water is so essential to what makes the film such a beautiful, dark fairy tale that it’s no wonder he has won the near-unbeatable trifecta Critics’ Choice, BAFTA and the Golden Globes. Hans Zimmer’s Grammy nominated score for Dunkirk is also a possibility, but I imagine this will be one of The Shape of Water‘s multiple wins on Oscar night.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman – Music and Lyrics by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
2. “Remember Me” from Coco – Music and Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
3. “Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name – Music and Lyrics by Sufjan Stevens
4. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall – Music by Diane Warren, Lyrics by Lonnie R. Lynn (Common) and Diane Warren
5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound – Music and Lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson
This is a category that felt so sewn up to me for months, but I have recently changed my winner prediction. I love “Remember Me” and it works so well in the context of Coco that it should really be our winner here. But The Greatest Showman fever has just grown and grown over the last few weeks, and “This Is Me” is the kind of inspirational, anthemic song that has often won here. It has even been featured in the Olympics for god’s sake. It is the only chance to reward The Greatest Showman, one of the biggest box office successes of 2017, and this will make Pasek and Paul consecutive winners in this category, following their victory last year for “City of Stars” from La La Land.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. The Shape of Water – Paul Denham Austerberry (Production Design); Shane Vieau and Jeff Melvin (Set Decoration)
2. Blade Runner 2049 – Dennis Gassner (Production Design); Alessandra Querzola (Set Decoration)
3. Beauty and the Beast – Sarah Greenwood (Production Design); Katie Spencer (Set Decoration)
4. Dunkirk – Nathan Crowley (Production Design); Gary Fettis (Set Decoration)
5. Darkest Hour – Sarah Greenwood (Production Design); Katie Spencer (Set Decoration)
The other category I feel confident The Shape of Water will win is Best Production Design. The film features some truly gorgeous visuals and fastidious set design to replicate the early ’60s, and I believe it’s a big part of why Guillermo del Toro is winning all of the Best Director prizes this year. Blade Runner 2049 and Beauty and the Beast also feature detailed designs and could have been winners in other years but I just can’t see either beating a film as beloved by the Academy as The Shape of Water.
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Dunkirk – Richard King and Alex Gibson
2. Baby Driver – Julian Slater
3. Blade Runner 2049 – Mark Mangini and Theo Green
4. The Shape of Water – Nathan Robitaille and Nelson Ferreira
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi – Matthew Wood and Ren Klyce
All of these films could make a case for why they deserve to win for their sound effects, but war films do extremely well here, which gives the edge to Dunkirk. The entire film showcases sound, from gunshots to whirring airplanes to explosions, and I have to believe voters will be impressed by the level of craftsmanship there. The movie also won at BAFTA and the Motion Picture Sound Editors Awards (MPSE), and while I think there’s a chance for Baby Driver, I’m going with Dunkirk for the easy win.
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Dunkirk – Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker and Gary A. Rizzo
2. Baby Driver – Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin and Mary H. Ellis
3. Blade Runner 2049 – Ren Bartlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth
4. The Shape of Water – Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Glen Gauthier
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi – David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Stuart Wilson
This is the first time in Academy history that both sound categories match up five for five, so there’s no reason for me to expect a different winner in both. While I will admit the loudness of Dunkirk irritated me in the theater, it provides such an immersive experience like you are truly in the battlefield. The film has already won here at BAFTA and the Cinema Audio Society Awards (CAS). I believe Baby Driver stands a better chance here, with its layers of music and effects, but Dunkirk is the more liked movie in the Academy.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Blade Runner 2049 – John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert and Richard R. Hoover
2. War for the Planet of the Apes – Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi – Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 – Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner and Dan Sudick
5. Kong: Skull Island – Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza and Mike Meinardus
This will be a heartbreaking category for me, because I know where this is going. We’ve been here before. I was confident that Rise of the Planet of the Apes would win Visual Effects in 2011 and then it lost to Hugo. I was confident that Dawn of the Planet of the Apes would win Visual Effects in 2014 and then it lost to Interstellar. Once again we have a situation where everyone is predicting the Apes movie to win, for its next-level visual effects, but I just don’t believe Academy members care enough about the franchise. That’s why I’m going with 5x nominee Blade Runner 2049, which has several showcase effects and just recently won at BAFTA.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1. Dear Basketball – Glen Keane and Kobe Bryant
2. Garden Party – Victor Caire and Gabriel Grapperon
3. Lou – Dave Mullins and Dana Murray
4. Revolting Rhymes – Jakob Schuh and Jan Lachauer
5. Negative Space – Max Porter and Ru Kuwahata
Predicting the short categories is often where even the best Oscar prognosticators fall on their faces. These are the ones that often decide who wins your office pool. All three of my predictions could be wrong, considering there’s next to no precursors to go by, but let’s dive in. For Animated Short, I’m going with Dear Basketball, the Kobe Bryant love letter to himself, because it has the most notable level of talent behind the scenes. The novelty of Bryant being an Oscar winner might be too tempting to pass up, even if it means giving a trophy to someone accused of sexual assault a decade ago.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. Heroin(e) – Elaine McMillion Sheldon and Kerrin Sheldon
2. Edith+Eddie – Laura Chekoway and Thomas Lee Wright
3.
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 – Frank Stiefel
4. Knife Skills – Thomas Lennon
5. Traffic Stop – Kate Davis and David Heilbroner
Documentary Shorts tend to go to films that are both palatable to a widespread voting body and have a strong social message. I am picking Heroin(e) here because it centers primarily on women trying to aid their community with opioid addiction. It also happens to be on Netflix, so it is the most visible of all the nominees. I could also see Edith+Eddie winning with its tale of elder abuse.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. DeKalb Elementary – Reed Van Dyk
2. The Silent Child – Chris Overton and Rachel Shenton
3. Watu Wote/All of Us – Katja Benrath and Tobias Rosen
4. My Nephew Emmett – Kevin Wilson, Jr.
5. The Eleven O’Clock – Derin Seale and Josh Lawson
It is an unspeakable tragedy that DeKalb Elementary has become the most relevant live action short in this category, as it takes places in the minutes before a school shooting incident. It is a tense short to watch, especially with nerves still raw from Parkland, but it has the timeliness that will likely overshadow all of its competition here and win.