The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced Thursday, which means it’s time to reveal my final predictions for which shows, actors, directors and writers will be having a particularly good morning. I have covered why I am predicting some of the more obvious nominations in my previous articles, so any stray observations made under each category will be about my riskiest predictions.
COMEDY SERIES
Atlanta
Barry
black-ish
Curb Your Enthusiasm
GLOW
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Silicon Valley
Predicting three new shows (Barry, GLOW and Mrs. Maisel) can be risky, but it’s a year of turnover considering we have two perennial nominees (Master of None, Veep) out of the running. Of all the revived shows this year I’m going with Curb Your Enthusiasm over Will & Grace simply because of HBO factor and the fact that it’s spent less time off the air.
COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS
Alison Brie – GLOW
Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Allison Janney – Mom
Issa Rae – Insecure
Tracee Ellis Ross – black-ish
Lily Tomlin – Grace and Frankie
Rachel Brosnahan feels like the clear frontrunner despite being on an Amazon show that is untested so far with the Television Academy. Issa Rae isn’t being predicted by many but she has become so respected and well-known as a creative talent, and considering the Emmys love rewarding multi-hyphenates, why not her, too?
COMEDY LEAD ACTOR
Anthony Anderson – black-ish
Ted Danson – The Good Place
Zach Galifianakis – Baskets
Donald Glover – Atlanta
Bill Hader – Barry
William H. Macy – Shameless
Yes, Ted Danson. I’m allowed one wishful thinking prediction, aren’t I? I do think the love for The Good Place is growing, and nominated an Emmy winner like Danson feels like a start. I’m rather foolishly not predicting Larry David here, but he’s missed before when the show has been nominated for Comedy Series, so I’m just following my intuition.
COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Betty Gilpin – GLOW
Leslie Jones – Saturday Night Live
Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live
Rita Moreno – One Day at a Time
Megan Mullally – Will & Grace
This is a tough category to call, where only McKinnon feels truly secure. Beyond her and Leslie Jones, I’m expecting a blend of new and familiar, with Borstein and Gilpin representing the new and Moreno and Mullally repping the revivals.
COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Louie Anderson – Baskets
Alec Baldwin – Saturday Night Live
Tituss Burgess – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Sean Hayes – Will & Grace
Marc Maron – GLOW
Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
This is another tough call where literally no one feels safe. Anything could happen here, with Anderson and Burgess feeling safe as returning noms but both could easily drop, Baldwin might be a novelty from last season, Maron and Shalhoub being on new shows and Hayes returning after 11 years. I wish I could predict Brian Tyree Henry for Atlanta but his performance might be too subtle in comparison to his competition.
COMEDY DIRECTING
Atlanta (“FUBU”) – Donald Glover
Atlanta (“Teddy Perkins”) – Hiro Murai
GLOW (“Pilot”) – Jesse Peretz
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (“Pilot”) – Amy Sherman-Palladino
Silicon Valley (“Initial Coin Offering”) – Mike Judge
Will & Grace (“Rosario’s Quinceanera”) – James Burrows
Double nominations for Atlanta considering one is directed by last year’s winner, Donald Glover, and the other is one of the most acclaimed TV episodes of the season. They love pilots, so I expect Mrs. Maisel and GLOW to show up here, with the latter being more vulnerable. Will & Grace is only here because of the new ruling that at least one multi-camera show must be nominated in this category.
COMEDY WRITING
Atlanta (“Alligator Man”) – Donald Glover
Atlanta (“FUBU”) – Stephen Glover
Barry (“Make Your Mark”) – Alec Berg & Bill Hader
GLOW (“Pilot”) – Liz Flahive & Carly Mensch
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (“Pilot”) – Amy Sherman-Palladino
Silicon Valley (“Fifty-One Percent”) – Alec Berg
Same general shows as Comedy Directing, with Barry likely earning a nomination here instead of Will & Grace.
COMEDY GUEST ACTRESS
Blythe Danner – Will & Grace
Tina Fey – Saturday Night Live
Tiffany Haddish – Saturday Night Live
Jane Lynch – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Laurie Metcalf – The Big Bang Theory
Wanda Sykes – black-ish
Emmy voters love their SNL stars and hosts, especially in this category, so I expect Fey and Haddish to represent the female hosts of the season. No idea how Will & Grace will do, but since Danner did earn Emmy love for the show back in the day, I slotted her in here. I also expect Metcalf to earn another nomination after losing her first Oscar earlier this year.
COMEDY GUEST ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown – Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Bobby Cannavale – Will & Grace
Bryan Cranston – Curb Your Enthusiasm
Donald Glover – Saturday Night Live
Bill Hader – Saturday Night Live
Leslie Jordan – Will & Grace
It’s a mix of Emmy favorites both old and new here, with celebrating young blood like Brown, Glover and Hader with old Academy favorites like Cannavale, Cranston and Jordan. No idea who wins.
DRAMA SERIES
The Americans
The Crown
Game of Thrones
The Handmaid’s Tale
Stranger Things
This Is Us
Westworld
The expected seven. I can’t even imagine another show upsetting these seven.
DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS
Emilia Clarke – Game of Thrones
Claire Foy – The Crown
Mandy Moore – This Is Us
Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh – Killing Eve
Keri Russell – The Americans
Man, this is a tough category. Beyond the expected three (Foy, Moss, Russell), anyone could miss, though I expect the love for Game of Thrones and This Is Us to carry both its leading actresses. I’m hopeful for Oh to get in here. She has the critics on her side, but who knows if Emmy voters are aware of a BBC America series.
DRAMA LEAD ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us
Kit Harington – Game of Thrones
Freddie Highmore – The Good Doctor
Matthew Rhys – The Americans
Liev Schreiber – Ray Donovan
Milo Ventimiglia – This Is Us
I do expect double nominees for This Is Us again, and Rhys and Schreiber should easily repeat. From there it gets tough, so I’m going with some younger contenders, Harington, who was nominated for for Game of Thrones in Supporting Actor and Highmore, who has only built acclaim off his performance on Bates Motel and is now commanding a very popular ABC show.
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Millie Bobby Brown – Stranger Things
Ann Dowd – The Handmaid’s Tale
Lena Headey – Game of Thrones
Chrissy Metz – This Is Us
Thandie Newton – Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski – The Handmaid’s Tale
I expect Brown, Dowd, Headey, Metz and Newton to easily repeat, so it comes down to the last slot. While many are going with Alexis Bledel, who won Drama Guest Actress last year but has since been bumped up, I’m predicting her co-star Yvonne Strahovski, who is almost co-lead status on this season of The Handmaid’s Tale.
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones
David Harbour – Stranger Things
Justin Hartley – This Is Us
Zahn McClarnon – Westworld
Mandy Patinkin – Homeland
Noah Schnapp – Stranger Things
Another total crapshoot to predict. After the amazing critic notices for Hartley and Schnapp plus the popularity of their respective shows, I think both could sneak into a wide-open race. My no-guts-no-glory prediction is McClarnon, who had the most buzzed about episode of Westworld this season right as Emmy nomination voting began and will likely be top of mind for most of the show’s fans.
DRAMA DIRECTING
Game of Thrones (“The Dragon and the Wolf”) – Jeremy Podeswa
Game of Thrones (“Beyond the Wall”) – Alan Taylor
Game of Thrones (“The Spoils of War”) – Matt Shakman
The Handmaid’s Tale (“Unwomen”) – Mike Barker
The Handmaid’s Tale (“After”) – Kari Skogland
Homeland (“Paean to the People”) – Lesli Linka Glatter
I really do think this category will be chockfull of Game of Thrones and The Handmaid’s Tale, and we know they love Lesli Linka Glatter and Homeland in this category, so I expect her to get in here again.
DRAMA WRITING
The Americans (“START”) – Joel Fields & Joe Weisberg
The Crown (“Mystery Man”) – Peter Morgan
Game of Thrones (“The Dragon and the Wolf”) – David Benioff & D.B. Weiss
The Handmaid’s Tale (“June”) – Bruce Miller
Killing Eve (“Nice Face”) – Phoebe Waller-Bridge
This is Us (“Super Bowl Sunday”) – Dan Fogelman
Expect Drama Writing to be much more open to a variety of shows, with Killing Eve and This Is Us being weaker overall but likely writer bait.
DRAMA GUEST ACTRESS
Kate Burton – This Is Us
Cherry Jones – The Handmaid’s Tale
Carrie Preston – The Good Fight
Diana Rigg – Game of Thrones
Cicely Tyson – How to Get Away with Murder
Samira Wiley – The Handmaid’s Tale
Nothing is certain aside from Diana Rigg. In the guest categories it’s usually safest to go with past winners and nominees, as I’m doing here.
DRAMA GUEST ACTOR
Alan Alda – The Good Fight
Beau Bridges – Homeland
Cameron Britton – Mindhunter
Ron Cephas Jones – This Is Us
Gerald McRaney – This Is Us
Peter Mullan – Westworld
Same goes for Guest Actor. Cameron Britton is probably weakest, but he has a huge amount of acclaim.
LIMITED SERIES
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Godless
The Looming Tower
Patrick Melrose
Twin Peaks
This is a weak year for the limited series/TV movie genre. Twin Peaks is a major question mark, but I think there are enough people that passionately love it to get it in.
TELEVISION MOVIE
Black Mirror: “USS: Callister“
Fahrenheit 451
Flint
Paterno
The Tale
Television Movie is even more grim, with the Black Mirror episode and The Tale being the only real strong contenders. Everything else is just filler.
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE LEAD ACTRESS
Hayley Atwell – Howards End
Jessica Biel – The Sinner
Laura Dern – The Tale
Michelle Dockery – Godless
Elisabeth Moss – Top of the Lake: China Girl
Sarah Paulson – American Horror Story: Cult
These feel like the clear six, with Sarah Paulson being surprisingly vulnerable due to the slipping love for American Horror Story.
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE LEAD ACTOR
Antonio Banderas – Genius: Picasso
Darren Criss – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Benedict Cumberbatch – Patrick Melrose
Jeff Daniels – The Looming Tower
Kyle MacLachlan – Twin Peaks
Al Pacino – Paterno
I hope beyond hope that Kyle MacLachlan at least earns a nomination for his incredible performance(s) in the Twin Peaks revival.
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Laura Dern – Twin Peaks
Nicole Kidman – Top of the Lake: China Girl
Angela Lansbury – Little Women
Judith Light – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Merritt Wever – Godless
Get that double nomination, Laura! Otherwise, I expect nominations for the few series I expect Emmy voters to have seen. Also, Lansbury has quite a narrative of being the all-time Emmy loser, so this might be her year at last.
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jeff Daniels – Godless
Brandon Victor Dixon – Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert
Bill Pullman – The Sinner
Edgar Ramírez – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Peter Sarsgaard – The Looming Tower
Michael Stuhlbarg – The Looming Tower
The only guarantee here is Ramírez, so just about everything here is guesswork. Dixon is obviously the most noteworthy prediction I have here, considering no actor from any of these recent live musicals has been nominated, but he got such universal acclaim that I have a feeling he sneaks in.
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE DIRECTING
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (“The Man Who Would Be Vogue”) – Ryan Murphy
Black Mirror: “USS Callister” – Toby Haynes
Godless – Scott Frank
The Looming Tower (“Now It Begins…”) – Alex Gibney
The Tale – Jennifer Fox
Twin Peaks – David Lynch
A mishmash of the shows and movies I presume voters will have watched.
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE WRITING
American Vandal (“Clean Up”) – Matthew McManus and Kevin McManus
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (“House by the Lake”) – Tom Rob Smith
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (“Creator / Destroyer”) – Tom Rob Smith and Maggie Cohn
Black Mirror: “USS Callister” – Charlie Brooker and William Bridges
Godless – Scott Frank
The Tale – Jennifer Fox
Same as Directing, though I do expect American Vandal to pop up after getting in at the WGA Awards.
VARIETY TALK SERIES
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee
Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
The Late Late Show with James Corden
Late Night with Seth Meyers
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Same lineup as last year, but swap out Real Time with Bill Maher for Late Night with Seth Meyers.
VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
Drunk History
I Love You, America
Nathan for You
Portlandia
Saturday Night Live
Tracey Ullman’s Show
Expect the eligible four from last year to get in again, with the critically acclaimed Nathan for You and Hulu’s Sarah Silverman-led I Love You, America to fill out the category.
REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
The Amazing Race
American Ninja Warrior
Project Runway
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Top Chef
The Voice
Trade secret: Predict the same nominees as last year until it proves otherwise.
REALITY HOST
W. Kamau Bell – United Shades of America
Bobby Berk, Karamo Brown, Tan France, Antoni Porowski and Jonathan Van Ness – Queer Eye
RuPaul Charles – RuPaul’s Drag Race
Ellen DeGeneres – Ellen’s Game of Games
Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn – Project Runway
Jane Lynch – Hollywood Game Night
RuPaul, Klum/Gunn, Lynch and Bell will almost definitely return, and I expect DeGeneres to replace last year’s Alec Baldwin as game show host of choice, and the Queer Eye Fab 5 have become household names, so they should nab a gorgeous nomination, honey.