With the arrival of May, it is time to start thinking about which shows and actors will be nominated at the 2018 Primetime Emmy Awards. The Television Academy just announced Saturday Night Live‘s Colin Jost and Michael Che are hosting this year’s festivities, and networks are already campaigning with big FYC events in Hollywood. This year’s nominations will be announced July 12, so we have a little over two months to squabble over which contenders will make the cut.
Here are my first predictions for the 2018 Primetime Emmy Awards, for the comedy and drama categories.
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Atlanta
Black-ish
Curb Your Enthusiasm
GLOW
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Silicon Valley
Will & Grace
Some quiet turmoil in this category as three-time winner Veep did not air within the past TV season. Neither did Master of None. I also expect Modern Family will finally be excluded from this category after continuing to decrease in nominations. As such, the only nominees I expect to return from last year are Atlanta, Black-ish and Silicon Valley. With the big boom in revivals, I think beloved Emmy favorites like Curb Your Enthusiasm and Will & Grace will both be back, if the older members have anything to say about it. There will likely be two new shows that break in here, Netflix’s GLOW and Amazon’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, considering their amazing success at the guilds and other award shows.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Anthony Anderson – Black-ish
Ted Danson – The Good Place
Zach Galifianakis – Baskets
Donald Glover – Atlanta
Bill Hader – Barry
William H. Macy – Shameless
This is a trickier category than most years, as I don’t see a clear lock for a nomination outside of Donald Glover, last year’s winner. I am presuming perennial nominees Anthony Anderson and William H. Macy will be back at least. Beyond them is anyone’s guess. Zach Galifianakis getting in last year was a bit of a surprise, but FX is good at the Emmy game so I think they can get him in again. The next two I’m taking a risk on, as I don’t know if Barry has resonated like other HBO shows, but Bill Hader is well-liked and an Emmy nominee for SNL. Ted Danson is also well-liked and an Emmy winner, and while The Good Place has not broken through with awards as much as it deserves to, I think he could be a surprise nom here, even over Larry David and Eric McCormack.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Alison Brie – GLOW
Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Jane Fonda – Grace and Frankie
Allison Janney – Mom
Tracee Ellis Ross – Black-ish
Lily Tomlin – Grace and Frankie
Tracee Ellis Ross, Lily Tomlin and recent Oscar winner Allison Janney are all in, as voters clearly love them and their characters. Rachel Brosnahan is the new girl on the block picking up major wins, so it would be a true shock for her to miss out here, though we’ve seen it happen with Gina Rodriguez and Rachel Bloom before. Luckily, Maisel has way more precursor support up to this point. Alison Brie is also getting great notices for GLOW, earning multiple nominations including SAG. I’m guessing Jane Fonda will get back in for Grace and Frankie after getting in last year, but if not I could see Debra Messing or Pamela Adlon nabbing that last slot.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Louie Anderson – Baskets
Tituss Burgess – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Sean Hayes – Will & Grace
Brian Tyree Henry – Atlanta
Marc Maron – GLOW
Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Another tough one as it’s hard to call any of these guys locks. It’s hard for me to see Tituss Burgess slipping out now despite his show trending downward with the Academy, especially with the Veep guys gone. Louie Anderson won this category two years ago so I imagine he gets in at least one more time. Marc Maron earned a surprise SAG nomination for GLOW and considering his popularity I think he’s probably in. Sean Hayes remains a total standout on Will & Grace and has multiple Emmy submissions that could net him a win. Brian Tyree Henry wasn’t nominated for the first season of Atlanta but he has been a major part of the show’s second season and he got a guest nomination for This Is Us last year. Then there’s Tony Shalhoub, who won three Emmys for Monk and plays another hilariously difficult character in Mrs. Maisel that should resonate with voters.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Leslie Jones – Saturday Night Live
Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live
Laurie Metcalf – Roseanne
Rita Moreno – One Day at a Time
Megan Mullally – Will & Grace
Kate McKinnon and co-star Leslie Jones are probably locks as they continue to stand out on SNL. Beyond that, anyone’s guess. I imagine Laurie Metcalf and Megan Mullally will both return for their multiple Emmy winning performances, though I could also see a scenario where the Academy totally snubs Roseanne. Alex Borstein is the classic kind of supporting performance that gets nominated in this category. Rita Moreno is a risk considering One Day at a Time didn’t do very well for its first season, but she is a living legend, an EGOT winner, and has the support of Netflix.
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
The Americans
The Crown
Game of Thrones
The Handmaid’s Tale
Stranger Things
This Is Us
Westworld
As you can see, the drama categories will likely be much more predictable than comedy. Last year saw a whopping five new shows nominated for Drama Series, The Crown, The Handmaid’s Tale, Stranger Things, This Is Us and Westworld, and I can easily see them all getting nominated for their second seasons. The Crown, Stranger Things and This Is Us did not have sophomore slumps, and critics have suggested the same for Handmaid’s Tale and Westworld. Game of Thrones is the biggest show on television with two victories in Drama Series under its belt, so it will get in again here. The seventh slot is tough considering The Americans slipped out last year, but this being its final season should help it greatly, as the only other show I could see getting in is Homeland.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jason Bateman – Ozark
Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us
Kit Harington – Game of Thrones
Matthew Rhys – The Americans
Milo Ventimiglia – This Is Us
Jeffrey Wright – Westworld
I think both This Is Us guys get in again, despite how rare this is in the lead categories. Matthew Rhys got in last year even with The Americans falling out, so he should get this one last nom. From there it’s a free-for-all. Kit Harington and Jeffrey Wright are both making the big leap to lead and I do think it will pay off for both of them, though Emmy winner Wright is clearly in a better position to do so than Harington. Then I think Jason Bateman gets the last slot, as one of the most popular guys in Hollywood on a new Netflix show.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Emilia Clarke – Game of Thrones
Claire Foy – The Crown
Mandy Moore – This Is Us
Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale
Keri Russell – The Americans
Evan Rachel Wood – Westworld
Claire Foy, Elisabeth Moss and Keri Russell are virtual locks to return. I was shaky on Evan Rachel Wood in the first season but she still got in, so I assume she gets in at least one more time here. This Is Us did extremely well last year at the Emmys, and even though Mandy Moore wasn’t nominated, she had such a great season that it would be surprising to see her not get in. The last slot is up for grabs, so I guess Emilia Clarke nabs it after getting three nominations in supporting.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau – Game of Thrones
Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones
David Harbour – Stranger Things
Justin Hartley – This Is Us
Mandy Patinkin – Homeland
Noah Schnapp – Stranger Things
This category is somehow simultaneously open and entirely predictable. There will be a lot of turnover, with at least four of the last year’s seven nominees not returning, so we should expect at least David Harbour and Mandy Patinkin to stick around. Academy favorite Peter Dinklage will easily get back in again for Game of Thrones and I suspect he’ll drag Nikolaj Coster-Waldau in with him, due to the show’s popularity and a complete lack of other buzzy contenders. I also think we’ll see two people that have been championed for Emmy glory all season, Justin Hartley and Noah Schnapp, get their first nominations.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Alexis Bledel – The Handmaid’s Tale
Millie Bobby Brown – Stranger Things
Ann Dowd – The Handmaid’s Tale
Lena Headey – Game of Thrones
Chrissy Metz – This Is Us
Thandie Newton – Westworld
I imagine previous nominees Millie Bobby Brown, Ann Dowd, Lena Headey, Chrissy Metz and Thandie Newton will all return easily. It’s all about that sixth slot, and with how much The Handmaid’s Tale was embraced last year, plus Alexis Bledel winning the guest actress Emmy, her promotion to supporting will likely be rewarded here.
I hope there is love for The Deuce and Maggie Gyllenhaal.