Emmys
FX/VH1/Showtime

Emmy Predictions 2018: Forecasting Nominations for Limited Series, Reality & Variety Categories

Having already given my predictions for the comedy and drama categories, here are my first predictions for the limited series/movie and reality/variety categories for the 2018 Primetime Emmy Awards. This year’s nominations will be announced July 12, so we have two months to squabble over which contenders will make the cut.

Here are my first predictions for the 2018 Primetime Emmy Awards, for the limited series/movie and reality/variety categories.

OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES
American Vandal
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Godless
Howards End
Twin Peaks

It’s a tough year to call for limited series, since nothing really took the nation by storm like Big Little Lies or The People v. O.J. Simpson in years past. Even if initial critics were divided on Gianni Versace I think the final product was immensely powerful and will probably be the frontrunner as such. I also expect something as high profile as Twin Peaks to be nominated despite its divisiveness. From there it’s anyone’s guess, so I’m betting on two Netflix series that have earned acclaim, American Vandal and Godless, since they have both done fairly well in precursor awards. I’m guessing Howards End will round out the five, as the TV Academy loves prestigious British dramas, especially those written by legendary writers like Kenneth Lonergan.

OUTSTANDING TELEVISION MOVIE
Black Mirror: U.S.S. Callister
Fahrenheit 451
Flint
Paterno
The Tale

Another toughie. I’d say the only lock is Black Mirror, which is once again cheating its way into TV Movie by only submitting one episode rather than the whole season. HBO does very well in this category typically, so I’m thinking its three biggest TV movies of the year will get in: Fahrenheit 451, Paterno, and The Tale. The last slot will probably go to the very topical Flint, which won a WGA Award.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE
Darren Criss – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Benedict Cumberbatch – Patrick Melrose
Michael B. Jordan – Fahrenheit 451
Kyle MacLachlan – Twin Peaks
Al Pacino – Paterno
Evan Peters – American Horror Story: Cult

Darren Criss should be the runaway frontrunner for his stellar performance as Andrew Cunanan in Gianni Versace, but Kyle MacLachlan will ideally be hot on his trail for playing three different characters in the Twin Peaks revival. Al Pacino will likely get in for yet another HBO TV movie where he plays a controversial public figure, while Benedict Cumberbatch gets in every year for whatever he does, so why not Patrick Melrose, too? After the great year Michael B. Jordan is having I’m guessing he can sneak into this category, even if Fahrenheit 451 doesn’t have the best reviews. For the last slot I’m going with a passion pick, but Evan Peters gave his best performance on American Horror Story yet this past season and I’m going out on a limb and saying the remaining AHS fans in the Academy will push him through.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE
Hayley Atwell – Howards End
Jessica Biel – The Sinner
Laura Dern – The Tale
Michelle Dockery – Godless
Elisabeth Moss – Top of the Lake: China Girl
Sarah Paulson – American Horror Story: Cult

Laura Dern has great reviews for her performance in The Tale, and while Elisabeth Moss and Sarah Paulson are on properties with diminishing returns, they are all beloved recent Emmy winners. Then there’s Jessica Biel for The Sinner, who got a Golden Globe nomination earlier this year, and Downton Abbey star Michelle Dockery in a show Emmy voters are likely to have seen. I’m not positive on Hayley Atwell or Howards End for that matter, but there are simply no other strong contenders at the moment and she is certainly a rising star.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE
Jeff Daniels – Godless
Brandon Victor Dixon – Jesus Christ Superstar
Edgar Ramirez – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Jason Ritter – The Tale
Michael Shannon – Fahrenheit 451
Sam Waterston – Godless

No idea. Seriously, this category is an absolute mess this year and the winner could be anyone. For now I’m going with people associated with what I expect to be the limited series and movies Emmy voters will watch, so Jeff Daniels, Edgar Ramirez, Michael Shannon, and Sam Waterston it is. Tentatively adding in Jason Ritter as well. Then there’s Brandon Victor Dixon, who had extremely strong reviews for Jesus Christ Superstar and could angle himself into becoming the first actor from one of these recent live musicals to get an acting nomination.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE
Ellen Burstyn – The Tale
Penélope Cruz – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Laura Dern – Twin Peaks
Nicole Kidman – Top of the Lake: China Girl
Angela Lansbury – Little Women
Judith Light – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

Hooray double nomination for Laura Dern! Like with Supporting Actor it’s hard to say exactly who will get in here, so it’s best to go with the seen contenders, like Ellen Burstyn in The Tale, Penélope Cruz and Judith Light in Gianni Versace, and probably Nicole Kidman for Top of the Lake. Then I expect there to be a big narrative for 18x Emmy loser Angela Lansbury to get a nomination that could even propel her to a win.

OUTSTANDING REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
The Amazing Race
American Ninja Warrior
Project Runway
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Top Chef
The Voice

Yep, exact same lineup as last year. There’s so little turnover in this category that there’s virtually no reason to expect anything different. There were no big reality competition shows that made a splash this past season, so there’s little reason to predict a change. Having said that, I think the deafening buzz for RuPaul’s Drag Race could lead to their first win in this category, ending The Voice‘s stranglehold over this category.

OUTSTANDING VARIETY TALK SERIES
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee
Jimmy Kimmel Live!

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
The Late Late Show with James Corden
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Real Time with Bill Maher

Again, no change from last year considering there weren’t many big scandals among the show’s hosts. I’m guessing Corden and Maher’s shows are most vulnerable, though it won’t matter in the end as we’ll probably see another victory for John Oliver.

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
Drunk History
Nathan for You
Portlandia
The President Show
Saturday Night Live
Tracey Ullman’s Show

This is a pretty dire category with few strong contenders so it’s easy to predict last year’s Drunk History, Portlandia, Saturday Night Live, and Tracey Ullman’s Show will get in again. It’s a free for all from there, but the Emmys seem to like Comedy Central series, so I’ll go with the two highest-profile shows, Nathan for You and The President Show.