Black Panther has now been out for a month and has earned incredible box office numbers, grossing over $570 million in the U.S. and over $1 billion worldwide. It already ranks as the no. 7 film of all time at the box office, and has the added benefit of stellar critical reviews. Now that the dust is settling, there are many wondering if a phenomenon like Black Panther can actually make it way to the Oscars next year.
Movies from the Marvel Cinematic Universe have traditionally done very poorly at the Oscars, collecting a handful of nominations for Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Editing and Best Makeup & Hairstyling. None of Marvel’s first 17 films in the Cinematic Universe have broken through in “bigger” categories. Even DC has managed a win for Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight for Best Supporting Actor, in addition to Best Makeup & Hairstyling for Suicide Squad. 20th Century Fox’s Logan did just break through for Best Adapted Screenplay, though that is certainly a more grounded superhero film than anything in Marvel’s universe. But it does suggest that Academy voters may be more willing to consider a superhero blockbuster for some of those heralded top categories.
Black Panther certainly seems like the kind of movie that could break through, if any. Some thought Wonder Woman could do it last year but that ended up with zero nominations. Even as someone who liked Wonder Woman I wasn’t too surprised, because even if there was a big push from women to champion the film, it was ultimately too similar to past action-heavy superhero flicks to have a fighting chance. What separates Black Panther is that it is a genuinely different experience than other superhero films, considering it discusses themes of race from the perspective of black characters not often seen in these kinds of roles. Director Ryan Coogler creates a sweeping, intricate tapestry with the land of Wakanda, the kind of cinematic scope often reserved for past epics of the Hollywood of yesteryear. The story is also nearly Shakespearean, with rivals and families battling it out and coming together in a fight for greatness. There is also the cultural impact the movie continues to have, with young black kids getting to see themselves onscreen not as the sidekick, but the hero.
As many have raised the question of whether Black Panther can succeed at the Oscars, others have dismissed the idea outright. But didn’t we hear those same dismissals last year with a little horror satire that did gangbusters at the box office, Get Out? That film also came out in February and dealt with the black experience, and much of the large black audience who carried the film to over $175 million claimed it as their own. While movies have often been positioned at the end of the year for awards purposes, here was a movie that came out in February, a kind of movie that had never really been nominated before. It seemed unlikely to many, but that passion continued through the entirety of 2017. It ended up with four Oscar nominations, for acting, writing, directing and Best Picture. Writer-director Jordan Peele took home the Best Original Screenplay prize. So why can’t a movie like Black Panther do the same?
There is reason to be slightly resistant to bold predictions like this, but we continue to see how the Academy is shifting and becoming more accepting of movies told from outside the white perspective. Moonlight won Best Picture last year over the heavy favorite La La Land, while Get Out collected a major win itself. Even a genre film like The Shape of Water managed to win Best Picture this year, where it probably wouldn’t have just five years ago. As younger, more diverse members continue to be invited into the Academy and make their voice heard, a movie with as much impact and quality as Black Panther should have an easier time getting into top categories. From my perspective, Best Costume Design is a sure bet at the very least, and Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design and Cinematography are all on the table. Best Picture is the big question, and while I won’t be so bold as to predict it there without seeing a majority of this year’s films yet, I do think there is a spot for it. Part of why the nominations were expanded beyond five was to accommodate bigger films to draw interest for the Oscars, after close contender The Dark Knight was snubbed in 2008. With big splashy productions like Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, Arrival and Gravity getting nominated in recent years, there is absolutely a slot there for Black Panther.