The Oscar nominations are just one day away, which means it’s time to finally share my predictions in all 24 categories. This has been one of the most exciting races in years, with no clear frontrunner in Best Picture. I’m gambling on a lot of these categories, but I feel confident in a new few things, that The Shape of Water will lead all nominations, and I, Tonya and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri will have surprisingly strong showings.
The nominations will be revealed Tuesday, Jan. 23 starting at 8:22 a.m. ET / 5:22 a.m. PT. You can stream it right here and check to see how right I am!
My final predictions:
BEST PICTURE
The Big Sick
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I’m going with the consensus five (Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Shape of Water, Three Billboards), plus the next safest bets (Call Me by Your Name, The Post) just like everyone else. Beyond that I expect both The Big Sick and I, Tonya are popular enough within the industry to get those last spots, the former being an early favorite and the latter surging at the last minute.
BEST DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
Jordan Peele – Get Out
It’s risky to pick the exact same nominees as the Directors Guild of America, but I can’t really envision any of these being weak enough to not get a nom. If there’s a fluke I would guess Luca Guadagnino or even Paul Thomas Anderson could get in as artsy choices.
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
James Franco – The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
No surprises here — the only tricky decision is whether the James Franco sexual misconduct reports will have affected the vote enough for him to miss. Since the reports came out on the second to last day of voting, I would guess he sneaks in.
BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Meryl Streep – The Post
Another consensus five here. I’d say Hawkins, McDormand, Robbie and Ronan are definitely in, and it’s tempting to not pick Streep considering it’s a more subtle performance and The Post has been underperforming, but I would never go against her after they nominated her for Florence Foster Jenkins, Into the Woods and August: Osage County.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me by Your Name
Dafoe, Jenkins and Rockwell are in, and I predict Harrelson is popular enough in Hollywood that he will be the second Three Billboards nominee here. Stuhlbarg is the “missing most of the precursors” nominee who surprises at the Oscars, for having such a great year and delivering an incredible final monologue in Call Me by Your Name.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
Janney and Metcalf are locks, and I think Hunter and Spencer, while not necessarily outstanding in their respective films, are well-liked actresses in well-liked movies so they will come along for the ride. Predicting Blige feels like a risk even though she got in at Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes and SAG because it’s such a restrained performance, and in a Netflix movie at that. But I think she gets in over Hong Chau in Downsizing, a movie very few people even like.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick – Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out – Jordan Peele
Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh
The WGA nominees except Three Billboards replaces I, Tonya.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory
The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Logan – Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green
Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound – Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
The WGA nominees 5 for 5 because this category is weak as hell. Logan is a risk considering they’ve never gone for a comic book movie in this category, but I think voters will respect the unique nature of the film compared to its predecessors.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
This begins a series of races where Dunkirk and The Shape of Water will face off against each other. Beyond this I’m picking the rest of the nominees who got in at the American Society of Cinematographers, including Mudbound‘s Rachel Morrison making history as the first female DP to ever be nominated at the Oscars.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
A lot of great, showy costumes this year. Beauty and the Beast should get in here like past live-action Disney adaptations Alice in Wonderland, Maleficent and Cinderella. The period costumes of The Greatest Showman, I, Tonya and Phantom Thread will all stand out here, while the Amphibian Man suit in The Shape of Water will secure that nomination.
BEST FILM EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Film Editing is tricky because it could really go any which way, but they like to lean on Best Picture nominees, so I have Dunkirk, Get Out, Shape of Water and Three Billboards getting in. The other nominee should be the biggest editing feat of the year, Baby Driver, which may hopefully contend for the win.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder
Really uncertain about them going with three “realistic” nominees and no fantasy. Darkest Hour and Wonder are in considering they are the most talked about makeup achievements of the year. I’m going with I, Tonya because it reportedly performed well at the shortlist “bakeoff” and features both showy makeup and hair, plus it’s probably a Picture nominee.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
A lot of visually stunning movies this year, particularly Beauty and the Beast, Blade Runner 2049 and The Shape of Water. This category also tends to value historical pieces that recreate elaborate sets, and Darkest Hour and Dunkirk fit the bill there.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Another tricky category. Dunkirk, Phantom Thread and The Shape of Water are in, but beyond that is anyone’s guess. In a wide open field I think they will default to the composers they know in Best Picture nominees, including John Williams for The Post and Carter Burwell for Three Billboards.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Beauty and the Beast – “Evermore”
Call Me by Your Name – “Visions of Gideon”
Coco – “Remember Me”
The Greatest Showman – “This Is Me”
Marshall – “Stand Up for Something”
“Remember Me” and “This Is Me” are the only songs I feel comfortable predicting. I imagine they’ll want to reward Alan Menken so I have a Beauty and the Beast song here, and Diane Warren is a legend in this category so “Stand Up for Something” should overcome its film’s lack of visibility. Most are predicting “Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name, but “Visions of Gideon” is more memorable and integral to the film itself, which I think they value.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Wonder Woman
BEST SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The two sound categories are hard to predict if only because they so rarely line up 5-for-5. I think they’ll want to reward Wonder Woman somewhere, but I think Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk and Star Wars are stronger, so it will only get into Sound Editing. The various audio elements of The Shape of Water should get it into Sound Mixing.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Okja
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, Star Wars and War for the Planet of the Apes are all in. As far as that last slot, it could go to The Shape of Water, but the CGI pig in Okja is so memorably and showy that I think it’ll sneak in here.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Despicable Me 3
Loving Vincent
This is the first year where those not in the animated branch can vote here, so beyond the expected Coco, The Breadwinner and Loving Vincent, I’m going with Despicable Me 3 and *sigh* The Boss Baby because they’re two of the biggest hits of the year.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Chasing Coral
City of Ghosts
Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
City of Ghosts, Faces Places and Jane have all showed up like crazy at precursors, so any of them missing would be a shock. Chasing Coral won the Audience Award at Sundance while Icarus is very timely (Russia, Olympics, doping).
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square
All five of these films have done decently with precursors compared to others on the shortlist, particularly The Square, Loveless and In the Fade. Beyond that, A Fantastic Woman and Foxtrot are two of the most critically acclaimed foreign films of the year.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Alone
Edith+Eddie
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Ten Meter Tower
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
DeKalb Elementary
My Nephew Emmett
Rise of a Star
The Silent Child
Watu Wote: All of Us
All of the short film categories are kind of a crapshoot considering very few have even seen them, but I’m rooting for the lovely In a Heartbeat in Animated Short!
MULTIPLE NOMINATIONS:
The Shape of Water – 12
Dunkirk – 9
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 8
Blade Runner 2049 – 5
Call Me by Your Name – 5
Get Out – 5
I, Tonya – 5
Lady Bird – 5
Darkest Hour – 4
Baby Driver – 3
Beauty and the Beast – 3
The Big Sick – 3
Mudbound – 3
Phantom Thread – 3
The Post – 3
Star Wars: The Last Jedi – 3
Coco – 2
The Disaster Artist – 2
The Greatest Showman – 2