The 70th Primetime Emmy Awards are less than a week away, which means it’s time to reveal my final winner predictions in all 26 categories that will be announced on the Sept. 17 telecast. I have ranked all the nominees in each category in order of winner chances, with a brief explanation of why I am predicting the nominee in the no. 1 slot. Let’s get things started with the drama categories.
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
1. The Handmaid’s Tale
2. Game of Thrones
3. The Crown
4. The Americans
5. Stranger Things
6. This Is Us
7. Westworld
The Handmaid’s Tale is still one of the buzziest, most relevant shows on television and it increased its number of nominations from 13 last year for Season 1 to 20 for Season 2. It is also the reigning champ in this category, so I expect a repeat win. Game of Thrones and The Crown had great showings at the Creative Arts, so they could spoil.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
1. Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale
2. Claire Foy – The Crown
3. Keri Russell – The Americans
4. Sandra Oh – Killing Eve
5. Tatiana Maslany – Orphan Black
6. Evan Rachel Wood – Westworld
Elisabeth Moss as June Osborne/Offred is one of those once-in-a-lifetime roles that any actor would kill for, and the actress was given even baitier material as June went through the wringer through Season 2. This is a strong category, though, and I could easily see Claire Foy, Keri Russell or Sandra Oh taking it.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
1. Matthew Rhys – The Americans
2. Milo Ventimiglia – This Is Us
3. Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us
4. Jeffrey Wright – Westworld
5. Jason Bateman – Ozark
6. Ed Harris – Westworld
This may have been Keri Russell’s season, but Matthew Rhys has the better chance in his category due to the inevitable vote-splitting that will come from the This Is Us and Westworld actors. I think this will be the Emmys’ way of rewarding The Americans for its final season, much like Kyle Chandler’s victory for the last season of Friday Night Lights in 2011.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
1. Yvonne Strahovski – The Handmaid’s Tale
2. Vanessa Kirby – The Crown
3. Ann Dowd – The Handmaid’s Tale
4. Lena Headey – Game of Thrones
5. Thandie Newton – Westworld
6. Alexis Bledel – The Handmaid’s Tale
7. Millie Bobby Brown – Stranger Things
Buzz is very important at the Emmys lately, and that will greatly benefit Yvonne Strahovski, who was clearly best in show among the three Handmaid’s Tale women nominated here for her increasingly sympathetic portrayal of Serena Joy. But if vote-splitting between The Handmaid’s Tale women goes down, I expect Vanessa Kirby to squeeze through.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
1. Matt Smith – The Crown
2. David Harbour – Stranger Things
3. Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones
4. Mandy Patinkin – Homeland
5. Nikolaj Coster-Waldau – Game of Thrones
6. Joseph Fiennes – The Handmaid’s Tale
This is a rough category to call. None of these nominees had particularly knockout seasons of their respective shows, but I’m going with Matt Smith because I have a feeling The Crown will walk away with at least one win on the main telecast. The acting branch clearly loves the show and in a relatively open category like this, Smith could benefit.
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
1. Game of Thrones (“Beyond the Wall”) – Alan Taylor
2. Game of Thrones (“The Dragon and the Wolf”) – Jeremy Podeswa
3. The Handmaid’s Tale (“After”) – Kari Skogland
4. The Crown (“Paterfamilias”) – Stephen Daldry
5. Stranger Things (“Chapter Nine: The Gate”) – The Duffer Brothers
6. Ozark (“The Toll”) – Jason Bateman
7. Ozark (“Tonight We Improvise”) – Daniel Sackheim
Another tough call between the two Game of Thrones episodes and The Handmaid’s Tale, but I’m going with “Beyond the Wall” from GoT because it was the big action centerpiece of Season 7, in which Jon Snow and his army battle the undead creatures that lurk beyond the wall.
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
1. The Handmaid’s Tale (“June”) – Bruce Miller
2. The Americans (“START”) – Joel Fields & Joe Weisberg
3. Game of Thrones (“The Dragon and the Wolf”) – David Benioff and D.B. Weiss
4. The Crown (“Mystery Man”) – Peter Morgan
5. Killing Eve (“Nice Face”) – Phoebe Waller-Bridge
6. Stranger Things (“Chapter Nine: The Gate”) – The Duffer Brothers
Going for a repeat win for Bruce Miller and The Handmaid’s Tale here, as it is the more obvious writer-driven episode versus Game of Thrones and had strong critical acclaim. Don’t be shocked if The Americans pulls off a farewell victory here.
Let’s move on to comedy!
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
1. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
2. Atlanta
3. Barry
4. black-ish
5. GLOW
6. Silicon Valley
7. Curb Your Enthusiasm
8. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
The comedy categories are much more fun due to the number of new shows and up-in-the-air categories. Comedy Series is chief among them, with a real showdown between Mrs. Maisel and Atlanta. I went with Mrs. Maisel because it is more traditional a.k.a. Academy friendly, and may be considered more “fresh” considering Atlanta is in its second season. Both shows won three Emmys at the Creative Arts, so it’s anyone’s guess, really.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
1. Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
2. Tracee Ellis Ross – black-ish
3. Allison Janney – Mom
4. Issa Rae – Insecure
5. Pamela Adlon – Better Things
6. Lily Tomlin – Grace and Frankie
Easiest acting win to call this year. Rachel Brosnahan is a force of nature as the titular Mrs. Maisel, and she’s already collected Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Awards for her stellar performance.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
1. Donald Glover – Atlanta
2. Bill Hader – Barry
3. Ted Danson – The Good Place
4. Anthony Anderson – black-ish
5. William H. Macy – Shameless
6. Larry David – Curb Your Enthusiasm
This was a really difficult decision, because I think Barry is the best work of Bill Hader’s career, but Donald Glover is having such a moment right now between his “This Is America” music video and Atlanta‘s red-hot success at the Emmys so I expect a repeat win, by a hair.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
1. Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
2. Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live
3. Betty Gilpin – GLOW
4. Zazie Beetz – Atlanta
5. Megan Mullally – Will & Grace
6. Laurie Metcalf – Roseanne
7. Aidy Bryant – Saturday Night Live
8. Leslie Jones – Saturday Night Live
Again, not really sure where Emmy voters are going to go in this category. I could realistically see any of the top 5 getting it. I’m picking Alex Borstein because it’s such a classic scene-stealing supporting performance as Midge’s manager and Borstein is well known in the industry for decades now. She also just won her first Emmy at the Creative Arts for her voiceover performance on Family Guy, signaling strong support.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
1. Henry Winkler – Barry
2. Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
3. Kenan Thompson – Saturday Night Live
4. Brian Tyree Henry – Atlanta
5. Alec Baldwin – Saturday Night Live
6. Tituss Burgess – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
7. Louie Anderson – Baskets
I predict this will be a big Emmy moment. Henry Winkler is a bona fide TV legend who has worked even longer than Borstein and is so beloved that Emmy voters will relish the thought of giving him his first Emmy. He also happens to be really good as acting teacher Gene Cousineau in Barry, so I would consider it a deserved win.
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
1. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (“Pilot”) – Amy Sherman-Palladino
2. Atlanta (“Teddy Perkins”) – Hiro Murai
3. Atlanta (“FUBU”) – Donald Glover
4. Barry (“Chapter One: Make Your Mark”) – Bill Hader
5. GLOW (“Pilot”) – Jesse Peretz
6. Silicon Valley (“Initial Coin Offering”) – Mike Judge
7. The Big Bang Theory (“The Bow Tie Asymmetry”) – Mark Cendrowski
For the longest time I had “Teddy Perkins” from Atlanta winning this category, but I think it will run into trouble because its signature star, Donald Glover, directed another episode nominated here. I think the votes for Atlanta will split and the excellent pilot from The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel will win the day.
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
1. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (“Pilot”) – Amy Sherman-Palladino
2. Atlanta (“Alligator Man”) – Donald Glover
3. Atlanta (“Barbershop”) – Stefani Robinson
4. Barry (“Chapter One: Make Your Mark”) – Alec Berg and Bill Hader
5. Barry (“Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast, and Keep Going”) – Liz Sarnoff
6. Silicon Valley (“Fifty-One Percent”) – Alec Berg
That’s right, I have Amy Sherman-Palladino walking away with three Emmys by the end of the night, between Comedy Series, Directing and Writing. ASP is another TV legend who has gone undeservedly unrewarded for years now, and the Maisel pilot is one of the best I’ve seen in years, thanks to her genius script.
And now for limited series and TV movies!
OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES
1. The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
2. Godless
3. Genius: Picasso
3. Patrick Melrose
5. The Alienist
The Assassination of Gianni Versace is the latest Ryan Murphy-produced series to hit big with the Emmys, and its fascinating look at the rampant homophobia of the ’90s will put this over the top. Godless is a possible spoiler and Genius: Picasso had an unexpectedly good night at the Creative Arts, but both would be a huge upsets.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
1. Laura Dern – The Tale
2. Michelle Dockery – Godless
3. Regina King – Seven Seconds
4. Jessica Biel – The Sinner
5. Sarah Paulson – American Horror Story: Cult
6. Edie Falco – Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders
The Dernaissance continues! Only Dern and Dockery have series nominated in Best Limited Series, and between the two of them, Dern gave the more layered, dynamic performance. Watch out for Regina King, though. She has won unexpectedly before, and pretty recently.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
1. Darren Criss – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – Patrick Melrose
3. Antonio Banderas – Genius: Picasso
4. John Legend – Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert
5. Jesse Plemons – “USS: Callister” (Black Mirror)
6. Jeff Daniels – The Looming Tower
Darren Criss showed new capabilities we never knew he had when taking on the role of serial killer Andrew Cunanan, and though he may be on the younger side compared to what Emmy voters like to reward, this feels like an undeniable performance. But you must always beware of the Cumberbatch.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
1. Merritt Wever – Godless
2. Judith Light – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
3. Penélope Cruz – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
4. Adina Porter – American Horror Story: Cult
5. Letitia Wright – “Black Museum” (Black Mirror)
6. Sara Bareilles – Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert
This is where I think Emmy voters will reward Godless. Merritt Wever came out of nowhere to win for Nurse Jackie in 2012, and she may just do it again over frontrunners like Light and Cruz. She plays brassy widow Mary Agnes in Godless, a character I expect voters to eat up.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
1. Brandon Victor Dixon – Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert
2. Jeff Daniels – Godless
3. Edgar Ramírez – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
4. Finn Wittrock – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
5. Michael Stuhlbarg – The Looming Tower
6. Ricky Martin – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
7. John Leguizamo – Waco
Brandon Victor Dixon had the kind of popular acclaim I’ve never seen from this recent wave of live TV musicals. Judas has always been a juicy role for Jesus Christ Superstar, and I think he’s the kind of “discovery” that voters will take to in a category mostly filled with established film and TV stars.
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE, OR DRAMATIC SPECIAL
1. Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert – David Leveaux and Alex Rudzinski
2. Godless – Scott Frank
3. Twin Peaks – David Lynch
4. The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (“The Man Who Would Be Vogue”) – Ryan Murphy
5. Patrick Melrose – Edward Berger
6. Paterno – Barry Levinson
7. The Looming Tower (“9/11”) – Craig Zisk
Pulling off that Jesus Christ Superstar live musical was a masterful feat, especially to have it come out so good. Emmy voters evidently loved it, having already won Best Variety Special (Live) at the Creative Arts, so I expect a lot of passion votes to go its way here. I’d love to see a David Lynch win, unlikely though it may be.
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE, OR DRAMATIC SPECIAL
1. “USS Callister” (Black Mirror) – Charlie Brooker and William Bridges
2. Godless – Scott Frank
3. The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (“House by the Lake”) – Tom Rob Smith
4. American Vandal (“Clean Up”) – Matthew McManus and Kevin McManus
5. Patrick Melrose – David Nicholls
6. Twin Peaks – David Lynch and Mark Frost
Black Mirror won last year for “San Junipero” and it would be foolish to predict anything else considering the originality of “USS Callister.”
And finally we have the variety and reality categories!
OUTSTANDING VARIETY TALK SERIES
1. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
2. Full Frontal with Samantha Bee
3. The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
4. The Late Late Show with James Corden
5. Jimmy Kimmel Live!
6. The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
Expect Last Week Tonight to win this for the foreseeable future, a la The Daily Show or The Colbert Report. Next.
OUTSTANDING VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
1. Saturday Night Live
2. Portlandia
3. Tracey Ullman’s Show
4. Drunk History
5. I Love You, America
6. At Home with Amy Sedaris
Again, unless a major sketch show comes along in the near future, this will remain SNL‘s category to lose. Though there is a possibility they could be sentimental and go with Portlandia in its final season.
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
1. The Oscars – Glenn Weiss
2. Dave Chappelle: Equanimity – Stan Lathan
3. Jerry Seinfeld: Jerry Before Seinfeld – Michael Bonfiglio
4. Steve Martin & Martin Short: An Evening You Will Forget for the Rest of Your Life – Marcus Raboy
5. Super Bowl LII Halftime Show Starring Justin Timberlake – Hamish Hamilton
ABC chiefs may be complaining about low ratings, but The Oscars are almost always a well-directed event, and should easily win in a category full of comedy specials and the Super Bowl halftime show.
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
1. Patton Oswalt: Annihilation – Patton Oswalt
2. John Mulaney: Kid Gorgeous at Radio City – John Mulaney
3. Michelle Wolf: Nice Lady – Michelle Wolf
4. Steve Martin & Martin Short: An Evening You Will Forget for the Rest of Your Life – Steve Martin and Martin Short
5. Full Frontal with Samantha Bee Presents: The Great American* Puerto Rico (*It’s Complicated) – Samantha Bee, Pat Cassels, Mike Drucker, Eric Drysdale, Mathan Erhardt, Miles Kahn and Nicole Silverberg
The Emmys rewarded Patton Oswalt two years ago for his previous comedy special, “Talking for Clapping,” so why not give it to him again?
OUTSTANDING REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
1. The Voice
2. RuPaul’s Drag Race
3. The Amazing Race
4. American Ninja Warrior
5. Top Chef
6. Project Runway
The Voice, I guess. I’d love to predict RuPaul’s Drag Race but we all fell into that trap last year only to be hit with The Voice again. Maybe the backlash of the show being produced by Mark Burnett will finally affect its chances. But probably not.
Watch the Emmys live Monday, Sept. 17 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on NBC.